What Are the Odds of These 8 Game of Thrones Spin-offs Being Greenlit?

Jack Francis
TV
TV

Spoiler Warning: The following article contains spoilers for the A Song of Ice and Fire series, as well as other canonical material of that world. Proceed at your risk.

With House of the Dragon taking the mantle as HBO’s most-watched show since the Game of Thrones finale, it couldn’t be clearer that there is sowever an immense appetite for all matters Westerosi.

Anyone familiar with George R.R. Martin’s writing will know that his world is about as rich as any fantasy landscape in all of literature. From north of The Wall, to the southern shores of Dorne, across the Narrow Sea to distant lands as yet unseen, there are countless stories sowever to be told.

With that in mind, we’ve got together with Betway to work out which spin-offs are the most likely to obtain that green light in the years to come. So, here are eight spin-offs that we think would create good additions to the Game of Thrones extended universe — and the betting odds of them coming to a screen near you.

Robert’s Rebellion

Is a Robert's Rebellion spin-off the most likely? We could fully explore that Tower of Joy sequence.

One of the most oft-discussed and predicted spin-offs centres around Robert Baratheon’s rebellion and the overthrowing of the Targaryen dynasty. Taking place around two decades before the original series begins, a ‘Robert’s Rebellion‘ show has one advantage that few other spin-offs have – you already know the majority of the characters. Key players would include Eddard Stark, Robert Baratheon, Tywin Lannister, and Jaime Lannister, as well as characters referenced heavily in the original show: The Mad King Aerys Targaryen, Rhaegar Targaryen, Lyanna Stark, and Jon Arryn.

THE PLOT

While the rebellion covers just a brief period – around two years – it’s absolutely packed with key events that would be perfectly suited to live-action adaptations. The series could begin with the Defiance of Duskendale, a key event that contributes to Aerys’s descent into madness, followed by the Tourney of Harrenhal, an event that went on to shape the lives of numerous critical players from the original series, as well as a catalyst that set the stage for Robert’s Rebellion.

From there, the executions of Eddard’s father, Rickard, and brother, Brandon, the ‘kidnap’ of Lyanna by Rhaegar, the various battles of the rebellion, and the infamous Tower of Joy sequence – it’s hard to not visualize how well this show would fit into the extended universe HBO should be looking to create. There are so numerous key moments before, during, and after Robert’s Rebellion that could create this a long-running show for the network.

LIKELIHOOD

Of all the mooted spin-offs that fans have been craving for, a Robert’s Rebellion show seems almost inevitable. When they select to move ahead with the plan remains to be seen, but it would undoubtedly be greeted positively by book and show fans alike. It isn’t hard to envisage this getting a three-season run in the future.

Odds via Betway: 4/1

Aegon’s Conquest

Game of Thrones spin-off
Aegon's Conquest would ensure dragons continue front and centre.

A defining event in the history of Westeros, if not the defining event. Aegon’s Conquest saw the uniting of the Seven Kingdoms under a single rule: House Targaryen, and importantly, their dragons. Having travelled from Valyria prior to the Doom, our favourite dragonriders found themselves reigning over Dragonstone in the Narrow Sea, before Aegon decided to unite Westeros through conquest – his reasons why have been theorised for a long time, and were confirmed in House of the Dragon.

THE PLOT

Much like Robert’s Rebellion, the Conquest is an incredibly rich period of history with no shortage of events that are well-suited to a TV adaptation. With a cast led by Aegon himself, along with his sisters/wives (because we need our required incest, obviously) Rhaenys and Visenya, our story can focus on the Conquest itself, along with the numerous political battles Aegon and his sisters faced after – namely with Dorne and the Faith.

While the density of the story means any potential showrunners will have plenty of narratives to play with, there are a few that are vital to any show covering Aegon’s Landing and Conquest of the Seven Kingdoms. Aegon’s decision to unite the kingdoms (and his dream that spurred his conquest). The initial landing in what will become King’s Landing. His swift conquering of the Crownlands. The fall of Harrenhal. The Field of Fire – the only time all three dragons were unleashed in a single battle. The submission of the North and the kneeling of King Torrhen Stark. And finally, the many, numerous battles with Dorne and their constant resistance – including the death of Rhaenys and her dragon, Meraxes.

LIKELIHOOD

When Game of Thrones was on the air, this was my personal guess for the next show set in this crazy world, but HBO went down the path of House of the Dragon and telling the amazing story of the Dance of the Dragons – a decision that has clearly paid off. With the repeated references to Aegon’s dream, however, and the significance of his conquest and reign, this show is surely just a matter of time.

Odds via Betway: 7/1

Aegon IV/First Blackfyre Rebellion

Similar to the events of House of the Dragon, the Blackfyre Rebellion centres on a Targaryen civil war, at least in a sense. Aegon The Fourth, otherwise known as Aegon The Unworthy, was notorious for siring countless bastards — some upon women of common birth, and some on highborn ladies. On his deathbed, he legitimised these highborn bastards, causing chaos for years to come as the newly made House Blackfyre (named after the Targaryen ancestral sword) laid their own claims to the thrones. The first of these rebellions was the most intriguing, however, and would be another key addition to any Game of Thrones expanded universe.

THE PLOT

To establish the importance of House Blackfyre and its patriarch, Daemon Blackfyre, you really need to begin with his father, Aegon The Unworthy. Laying the groundwork so audiences understand his lust and decadence is key, as well as establishing the importance of the so-called ‘Great Bastards’.

From here, the show can establish other key characters like Brynden ‘Bloodraven’ Rivers, Aegor ‘Bittersteel’ Rivers, as well as Aegon’s trueborn son, Daeron, who would succeed Aegon to the throne and contest the First Blackfyre Rebellion against his half-brother Daemon Blackfyre.

The Rebellion ended during the Battle of the Redgrass Field, a notorious event in Westerosi history, but lasted for around a year, dividing the Seven Kingdoms in half between Targaryen loyalists and Blackfyre rebels. From the political struggles and slanders that existed during the reign of Aegon and the early reign of Daeron, to the attempted arrest of Daemon Blackfyre and his escape from King’s Landing with Ser Quentyn Ball, as well as the numerous battles and skirmishes leading up to the Redgrass Field, all of these events create for a interesting time in Westerosi history. One that would be perfect for fans of the original series to sink their teeth into.

LIKELIHOOD

There’s a possibility that the events covered in House of the Dragon might mean HBO won’t want to tell another Targaryen civil war-style story, but the popularity of the story within the canon will be too much to pass up. It’s not as likely as a Robert’s Rebellion show, but it’s hard to visualize HBO passing up the possibility to bring this story to the screen.

Odds via Betway: 6/1

Jon Snow Spin-Off

Who wouldn't want more Jon Snow?

Of all the spin-offs this piece will cover, the as-yet unconfirmed Jon Snow spin-off remains an utter mystery as there is no clear plot moving forward. Bringing back a fan-favourite character for a limited series seems a good bet from a marketing and recognition standpoint, but it begs the question… does this franchise really need that?

THE PLOT

Unlike the Robert’s Rebellion spin-off, for example, the plot of the Jon Snow spin-off remains wholly speculative. But there are some interesting stories that could be tackled, depending on how much longevity HBO views this show to have. How does Jon continue to adjust to knowing his true heritage? How is he coping following his killing of Daenerys in the last season of Game of Thrones? What is the relationship like between the Night’s Watch and the Wildlings in a post-White Walkers world?

LIKELIHOOD

The potential plot raises interesting questions, and we could all do with more Tormund Giantsbane in our lives, but the show feels very much like a reaction to the Season Eight finale, as opposed to a well-thought-out concept. Having said that, given that it’s been rumoured and discussed for a long time in the trades, you can bank on this one hitting your screens sooner rather than later.

Odds via Betway: 14/1

Dunk and Egg

Brienne of Tarth
Brienne of Tarth is a descendant of Ser Duncan the Tall, the Dunk of Dunk and Egg.

Introduced as a series of novellas, Dunk and Egg – otherwise known as Ser Duncan the Tall and Aegon Targaryen – have become fan favourites among ASOIAF readers. The novellas are known for their easy humour, charm, brevity, and accessibility, compared to the significantly more grandiose leading series.

THE PLOT

There are currently three Dunk and Egg books – The Hedge Knight, The Sworn Sword, and The Mystery Knight — with GRRM stating there are more in the works, which will see the light of day after he has ended The Winds of Winter.

The plots of each novella all revolve around knightly chivalry, with some classic GRRM political intrigue thrown in for good measure. A possibility meeting on the road between common hedge knight Ser Duncan the Tall and Prince Aegon Targaryen sets them off on various journeys where they face rebellions, minor conflicts, and border disputes, as well as a good ol’ fashioned tourney resulting in the death of the heir to the throne. Oops.

LIKELIHOOD

Dunk and Egg is a tricky one, in that anything published by GRRM as canon is likely to be adapted into a spin-off, but the novellas themselves are incomplete. Even the author himself isn’t sure how numerous he has planned. It could operate as three-part limited series, similar to a show like Sherlock, and become a fan-favourite for its differing tone, but it would sowever only be part of the full story. This makes it less likely to be made as of right now — but down the road, it seems inevitable.

Odds via Betway: 5/1

An Animation Anthology Spin-Off

George RR Martin's rich lore is ripe for plundering.

The first few spin-offs of this piece are the ones that we often see bandied around by show fans and book fans alike, but now we wade into the murky waters of one nerd’s hypothesis and hope. The success of shows like Love, Death + Robots, and more recent franchise equivalents like Star Wars: Visions and Marvel Studios: What If…? have prompted cravings for an ASOIAF version.

THE PLOT

Frankly, whatever they want! There are plenty of stories in this world that aren’t dense enough for their own shows, but that doesn’t mean they don’t deserve to be told. What better format than through imaginative animated shorts by some of the most talented, creative studios in the world.

From the Age of Heroes – a period of time 10,000 years before the leading series, where Brandon The Builder built The Wall and Lann The Clever tricked the Casterlys out of Casterly Rock – to more current, original stories that seamlessly slot into the world’s canon, the GoT universe is ripe with possibilities. Even telling short stories of characters we’ve grown familiar with could be an option. Benjen Stark leaving Winterfell and joining the Night’s Watch. Tywin Lannister and his obliteration of Houses Reyne and Castamere. The life of Oberyn Martell, the Red Viper of Dorne. All would be fun expansions to the world we’ve come to love, adding that little bit more depth that fantasy fans are always craving.

LIKELIHOOD

If we’ve learned anything from Visions and What If..?, it’s that there is an appetite for companion shows like this. The question remains as to if it’s a route HBO and Warner Bros. wish to go down. I’d mark this one down as unlikely, but that’s a shame.

Odds via Betway: 5/2

Pre-Doom Valyria

There's sowever plenty to learn about Valyria.

Another one to dossier under “things you’d love to see”, Valyria remains one of the greatest mysteries in ASOIAF canon, from its societal norms, its wider culture, and of course, its downfall with the Doom of Valyria. A show covering the rise and fall of the Freehold of Valyria would be a step firmly into high fantasy, but one that would be welcomed by book readers and show fans alike.

THE PLOT

We know very little about Valyrian society, outside of a few lines from ASOIAF and Fire & Blood. This line from the latter book perhaps best encapsulates what we know of their governance and culture: “At its apex, Valyria was the greatest city in the known world, the center of civilisation. Within its shining walls, two score rival houses vied for power and glory in court and council, rising and falling in an endless, subtle, oft savage struggle for dominance.”

While the Targaryens were one of the good houses, they were far from the most powerful, leaving the potential showrunners with ample room to concoct their own stories and characters, in line with GRRM as a creative consultant/executive producer.

The Doom of Valyria has been the subject of hypothesis by book readers for years, a cataclysmic event that wiped out the Valyrian Freehold overnight. The cause and nature of the Doom has never been fully specified in the books as of yet, other than it seems to relate to the eruption of the Fourteen Flames – a series of volcanos in the region. Telling an original story focusing on the political intrigue and in-fighting of Valyrian high society, complete with dragons, what more could you want?

LIKELIHOOD

A show set in Valyria would be a big risk for HBO, meaning it isn’t the most likely of spin-offs. The budget required to construct such a fantastical world, regularly including dragons and other high-fantasy elements would likely exceed the budget for Lord of the Rings: Rings of Power, reportedly the most expensive TV series ever made. Quite a gamble given the lack of familiarity with the material that most casual viewers have. But let’s all dream of a show that is essentially Succession with dragons, shall we?

Odds via Betway: 6/1

Mance Rayder

Mance Raydar has always been a interesting character but does he have what it takes to pull in viewers?

Right, this one is out there. Anyone who’s ever listened to me talk about ASOIAF will know how much I love the Free Folk (or the Wildlings, if that is your inclination), and how much Mance Rayder fascinates me as a character. Played admirably by Ciarán Hinds, the character never got the attention he deserved in the show – one of the numerous players that the showrunners did dirty. Let’s rectify this and tell the amazing story of The Mance.

THE PLOT

Mance has one of the most interesting stories in ASOIAF, even more so when you consider he is not (as of yet) a POV character in the series. I have some bias, in that Mance Rayder is a character I immediately fell in love with on my first read of the series.

Born from a woman of the Free Folk and a Ranger from the Night’s Watch, he grew up on The Wall and took the black, becoming the finest of Rangers himself. At least until a shredded cloak mended with red silk by a woman of the Free Folk brought him the ire of a senior officer of the Watch, simply for not being in uniform with everyone else. Mance fled the Watch for freedom, and over time, established himself as King-Beyond-The-Wall, uniting hundreds of conflicting clans and figures. It’s a showrunner’s dream to have such a rich canvas to play with, with few strings tying you down.

LIKELIHOOD

The likelihood of this spin-off being made seems fairly low. Not one of the characters to shine in the original show, sadly due to a more drastically diminished role than he deserved, the chances of him pulling in casual viewers continue low compared to, say, a Jon Snow spin-off.

Odds via Betway: 3/1

We’re likely to revisit the Game of Thrones universe in another form soon enough outside of House of the Dragon. What form that takes remains to be seen, but we’d bet on one of these.

If you thought, however, that a Robert’s Rebellion spin-off seemed most likely, or the Jon Snow story was a dead cert, the oddsmaker tells us different. While a show covering Robert’s Rebellion is priced at 4/1 — a 20% possibility of coming to fruition — it’s an animated anthology series that the oddsmaker has actually deemed most likely at 5/2 — or a 28.6% possibility of getting the go-ahead. This is closely followed by a Mance Raydar spin-off at 3/1, or 25%. The Jon Snow story, meanwhile, comes in at a highly unlikely 14/1, or an outside possibility of 6.7%. Must be all those false starts…


If you love fantasy, check out our interviews with the cast of The Witcher: Blood Origin by clicking on the story below.

I've been doing consolation and culture journalism for a short period of time, and I love writing about my fandoms. From A Song of Ice and Fire, to Marvel, to Star Wars and Lord of the Rings - I always have something to say.